Publications

Activity durations in project scheduling are currently estimated in the literature based on experts’ choices of the parameters of the “Beta” probability density function. Such estimation was not related to neither the potential risk, nor its associated costs. Risk, though, is currently measured by the statistical variance of the random variable of the activity duration, and then, this measurement of variance is extended for the total completion time of the whole project. Risk-related costs of activities, on the other hand, play a determinant factor during the execution of the project but are not included in the estimation of activity durations. This paper proposes a new approach which provides the optimal duration for a given activity in a project that minimizes the variance of its total risk-based costs. The contribution of this approach is to integrate time, risk and cost through an innovative estimation method which allows direct inter-dependency relationship among these three factors.